International Diffusion of Privatized National Defense: A Comparative Analysis of the Privatization of War

Abstract

This dissertation examines the rapid rise of the privatization of war phenomenon from 1998 to 2022, exploring why some states have adopted military privatization policies in the last 25 years while others have not. In other words, it assesses a state’s use or non-use of private military contractors. This study aims to address the gaps in the security privatization literature by developing a more generalizable theory for the global spread of military privatization policies since the start of the Global War on Terror. Using the diffusion of innovation theory—a novel framework—this research investigates whether this military innovation has spread to other states after exposure to U.S. military privatization practices in response to the terror attacks on 9/11.

Using data from 163 states, a logistic regression is employed to assess the effects of U.S. military exposure, terrorism threats, and privatization on a state’s decision to adopt or not adopt military privatization policies. Four paired case studies are then conducted to explore more deeply why states within the same region and those in different regions may choose to adopt or reject these policies. Overall, this study finds that a state’s decision is influenced by both U.S. military exposure (external diffusion) and terrorism threats (internal motivators), but not by prior acceptance of general privatization policies. Notably, three common patterns emerge: the prominence of a U.S. relationship, the severity of terror attacks combined with the effectiveness of state security forces, and the perceived operational effectiveness of private military contractors—all of which increase a state’s likelihood of adopting military privatization policies.